At the start of the election campaign, the Liberal Party believed Bruce was a seat they could win, but it ended up being a disaster that saw an almost 10 per cent swing against the party.
The Bruce electorate, which was initially projected to be a marginal seat, saw Julian Hill return the South East seat to a Labor stronghold with a 15 per cent margin in the two-party preferences (2PP).
Even in primary voting, Hill tacked on 40,111 primary votes (46.38 per cent), compared to Safi’s 19,588 primary votes (22.71 per cent).
Liberal candidate Zahid Safi would only win two polling booths: Harkaway and Narre Warren North.
This victory comes, as late in the campaign, Safi was mired by a series of controversies surrounding his NDIS businesses, which the Age reported will be investigated by the sector’s new watchdog.
Hill led the 2PP race with 53,311 votes (65.28 per cent) compared to Safi’s 29,945 (34.72 per cent).
To be more precise, on his wins, Safi just held on to Narre Warren North’s handle with a 1.8 per cent swing over Hill, who had 655 2PP votes (49.10 per cent) to Safi’s 679 (50.90 per cent).
Harkaway was a bigger lead, where Safi had 399 2PP votes (57.66 per cent) to Hill’s 293 (42.34 per cent).
Concerningly for the Liberals, in the remainder of Narre Warren’s booths, Berwick, Cranbourne North, Endeavour Hills, Fountain Gate and Hallam, Hill averaged a 2PP swing of 12 per cent against Safi.
Berwick, a Liberal-leaning suburb which had large sections taken by Bruce in a recent redistribution, saw an average of 13 per cent swing in Hill’s favour in all six polling booths.
Hill’s biggest win was in Timbarra Community Centre, where he notched 556 votes (62.61 per cent) compared to Safi’s 332 (37.39 per cent), with a 17.72 per cent swing.
With the most voters in the suburb, the Akoonah Park booths had a swing of 6.61 per cent to Hill, with 6267 votes (53.67) to Safi’s 5410 (46.33).
Despite Safi’s win at Narre Warren North, the average swing to Hill was still strong at 10.57 per cent.
Even in La Trobe, Berwick booths saw swings against long-time Liberal MP Jason Wood by beyond 10 per cent in the 2PP.
Wood was asked on election night about the state of Bruce, where he defended Safi.
“Everyone puts their hand up to run as candidates with the best intentions, I congratulate Julian Hill and Zahid Safi for being there,” he said.
“Never kick a person when they are down, that’s my view too, and he has given it the best he could.
“Put it this way, I don’t think we have got any candidates up at the moment.”
