La Trobe could be one of the key battleground seats in the upcoming federal election, says a Monash University political expert.
Senior politics lecturer Dr Zareh Ghazarian also expects the economy, jobs, infrastructure, schools and hospitals to be crucial issues for voters in South East electorates such as Holt and La Trobe.
Hip-pocket issues like housing affordability and cost-of-living are high on the agenda in the growth belt and its new estates.
They play a part in the crucial question of which party is seen as the better economic manager, Dr Ghazarian says.
“In the new housing estates, it will be important that the messaging around housing affordability will be where those electors are tuning in.”
Long-time Liberal MP Jason Wood’s seat, which encompasses parts of Berwick, Clyde North and much of the growing Cardinia Shire, is held on a less than 5 per cent margin.
He’s successfully defended the often marginal seat five times since 2004, with the exception of the 2010 election.
In 2019, he defied a Victorian swing against the Liberal party to increase his margin.
This time, Mr Wood faces off against first-time ALP candidate Abi Kumar.
“La Trobe could be a key battleground for the state, though it is safer than Higgins or Deakin. It is close to where Flinders is at, in terms of margin,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“We’d expect the Liberals to hold onto these seats.”
Meanwhile, Anthony Byrne, the long-time Labor incumbent in Holt, has retired leaving fresh-faced candidate Cassandra Fernando to protect a 9 per cent margin.
Among her opponents will be Mr Wood’s former electorate officer Ranj Perera for the Liberals.
The seat covers much of the City of Casey including Hampton Park, Narre Warren South, Cranbourne and the Western Port townships.
“I can’t imagine Holt changing,” Dr Ghazarian says.
“Even though when an incumbent goes, there’s a section of the vote that they take with them. It will affect the vote.
“But looking at the history of the seat, the Liberal party hasn’t won it in the past 40 years.”
In Victoria, it’s more likely than not that Labor holds its seats – though marginals like Dunkley (2 per cent) and Corangamite (1 per cent) are in play.
“It’s going to be hard to see a party going for its fourth term in government winning these seats back.
“If Labor starts losing seats like Dunkley, they’re going to be struggling to win the election.”
Dr Ghazarian is wary of bullish predictions of a Labor win, given pollsters were “burnt” by the Coalition’s ‘miracle’ win in 2019.
“Labor is in an election-winning lead and we’d expect it to be the case on election night.
“But that’s what we were expecting in 2019.”
Much will be decided in the campaign’s early weeks – before about 30-40 per cent of voters start to cast pre-poll votes.
“For many voters, it will mean the campaign ends for them two weeks before the actual election day.
“So the next three to four weeks are the crucial weeks for the campaign.”
The Federal election is on 21 May. For information, go to aec.gov.au
