By Eleanor Wilson
The new district of Berwick would have been claimed by the Liberal Party in the 2018 state election, had new electoral boundaries been in place at the time.
New data from the Victorian Electoral Commission analyses how two-candidate-preferred votes would have fallen if the 2018 State election had used the electoral boundaries that will be in place for the 2022 election.
According to the data analysis released on Monday 8 August, the Liberal Party would have taken the new seat of Berwick (formerly part of the abolished Gembrook district), while the Labor Party would have strengthened its lead in the seats of Narre Warren North and Narre Warren South, while also holding onto the seat of Cranbourne.
In 2018, the seat of Gembrook was narrowly won by Liberal Party candidate Brad Battin with a margin of 50.8 per cent, compared to the Labor Party’s 49.2 per cent.
Under the new electoral boundaries, the new seat of Berwick takes on some of the land previously covered by Gembrook, with VEC analysis showing that, had the redistributed boundaries been in effect at the last election, the Liberal Party would have won the seat of Berwick with 51.3 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred vote, compared to Labor at 48.7 per cent.
At the 2018 State election, the seat of Narre Warren South was won by Labor’s Gary Maas with 56.9 per cent of the vote, while Labor picked up 43.1 per cent.
However data shows that, had the redistribution been in effect at the last election, Labor would have taken the seat with 60.9 per cent of the vote, an increase of 4 percentage points.
The redistribution analysis showed little impact on voting in the seats of Narre Warren North and Cranbourne, despite both areas being classified as marginal Labor seats.
Labor’s Narre Warren North candidate would have strengthened their lead by 0.64 per cent of the vote, while the Labor Party would have lost 1.68 per cent of the vote in Cranbourne, but still would have won the seat with 59.3 per cent of the vote.
The redistributed boundaries show the government would have lost Bass and Bayswater in the 2018 State election, while the Liberals would have lost Caulfield, Hastings, Ripon and Pakenham.
