If money is anything to go by then Anthony Albanese is set to become Australia’s next Prime Minister, but in the south east the odds with maintaining the status quo.
In the past week, money for Labor has surpassed that of investments for the Coalition and as such TAB has been forced to adjust their prices in the Election 2022 market.
Labor has gone from $1.80 into $1.50 while the Coalition has blown to $2.55 (out from $2).
“The market continues to be very dynamic. The Coalition firmed all the way in to $1.90 around Easter (ALP $1.85) but since then we’ve seen a dramatic shift towards Labor,” TAB’s Gerard Daffy said.
“This time last week, punters could have secured $1.80 about Labor but now we have them as clear $1.50 favourites.
“The Coalition is now out to $2.50 and that’s coincided with polling showing a continued predicted gap between the two sides on the two-party preferred vote.”
Locally, the Coalition and ALP were locked at $1.90 each in the marginal seat of La Trobe – an even money bet – when the campaign was launched, but incumbent Jason Wood has firmed considerably in the market and it is now $1.70 for every $1 invested compared to Labor at $2.10.
In the neighbouring seats of Monash and Holt, Liberal Russell Broadbent ($1.11) and Labor’s Cassandra Fernando ($1.01) are hot favourites.
TAB has started to see some larger bets coming through as the campaign unfolds which is a trend that is expected to continue and accelerate in the coming weeks.
“We already had one customer splash out $50,000 @ $2 on the Coalition a few weeks back but we also took another $20,000 @ $1.55 for Labor in the past 48 hours,” Daffy said.
There have been moves for the Coalition in the Melbourne seat of Higgins ($1.50 into $1.36) and a push towards independent Allegra Spender ($2.05 into $1.75) in the NSW seat of Wentworth with Liberal Dave Sharma drifting from $1.68 to $2. Meanwhile, there was heightened betting interest towards the Independents in Treasure Josh Frydenburg’s seat of Kooyong off the back of unfavourable inflation news earlier this week.
