Chelsea Heights completed a resounding 68-point win over Caulfield on Saturday keeping the pressure for top-spot on Doveton who had a bye.
Caulfield was kept scoreless against the wind in the first and third quarters and that is when Chelsea did the damage, kicking 11 of its 15 goals, with the experienced Luke Tapscott named best player.
Meanwhile, Hampton Park was unflinching in its 119-point thumping of the winless Heatherton.
Keysborough took care of East Brighton by 41 points to maintain its stranglehold on third-spot.
Forward Tom Shaw finished with six goals, continuing his strong form. The experienced recruit has now registered 46 goals in his first season at Rowley Allan, including 22 in the past three games.
In the weekend’s other game, Highett beat eighth-placed Skye by 26-points.
Skye burst out of the blocks with a seven goal first quarter, but was kept goalless thereafter as Highett ran over the top of them, getting the lead in the last stanza, and holding onto it.
The run home:
CHELSEA HEIGHTS: Doveton, Keysborough, Heatherton, East Brighton.
The next two games will be decisive for Chelsea Heights. It looks a near-certainty to finish top-two after being a dominant force all season, but the clash with Doveton is a must-win if it wants to host the qualifying final. Win that, and they likely finish top – though they still might slip to second if they lose to third-placed Keysborough, and Doveton is flawless. Even if Chelsea loses both of its next two, it probably could not slip below second, given Keysborough has an inferior percentage and a bye on the run home.
DOVETON: Chelsea Heights, Skye, Highett, Caulfield.
The Doves have a chance to go a game clear on top of the ladder if they beat Chelsea Heights on Saturday. They could even lose on the weekend and still finish top, provided they are flawless, and Keysborough beat Chelsea. Only needs to win two of its last four to secure a top-two berth, and will go in to the last three matches as firm favourites.
KEYSBOROUGH: Bye, Chelsea, Skye, Highett.
Barring something remarkable, the Burra probably can’t move from third position. Winning the next match against Chelsea could be decisive in helping the Doves finish on top. Probably only need one win – if that – to ensure the chasing pack don’t catch them.
CAULFIELD: Skye, Highett, Hampton Park, Doveton.
Given Hampton Park and East Brighton play each other and both have a bye in the run home, Caulfield only needs one win to absolutely sew up fourth position – unless Highett gets on a roll and pulls off four upsets. It’s very unlikely that the Bears overtake the Burra, so expect to see them hosting the best of the chasing pack in an elimination final.
HAMPTON PARK: Highett, East Brighton, Caulfield, Bye.
The Redbacks’ last three matches are all essentially ‘eight-point matches’ and should be treated as elimination finals. In particular, the match against East Brighton could go a long way to determining fifth spot. Win that, and one other, and provided other results go relatively as expected, then the Redbacks should qualify. Losing to East Brighton makes it tricky; even if Hampton Park won the other two, East Brighton has a similar percentage and that is what it might come down to in determining fifth spot.
EAST BRIGHTON: Heatherton, Hampton Park, Bye, Chelsea.
The Hampton Park game is the decisive one. Win that, and take care of Heatherton, as expected, then it likely comes down to percentage. But lose the Hampton Park match, and it would probably need to beat Chelsea just to give itself a shot.
HIGHETT: Hampton Park, Caulfield, Doveton, Keysborough.
The weekend’s win gives them a pulse, but Highett is still the least likely of the chasing pack, given its tricky draw. All remaining games are against sides above them on the ladder, and Highett would need to win three of those four – and even then, there is a chance they still miss out. The silver-lining? Highett is the only team jostling for fifth spot that does not have a bye, so go undefeated and top-five is a certainty.
SKYE: Caulfield, Doveton, Keysborough, Heatherton
A clash with Heatherton in the last round presents a golden opportunity for celebration. Even if they lose, Skye likely avoid relegation given the superior percentage.
HEATHERTON: East Brighton, Bye, Chelsea, Skye.
The final round against Skye gives Heatherton its best opportunity for a win. Would need that win, plus one other, if it is to avoid relegation.
LADDER: Chelsea 44, Doveton 44, Keysborough 40, Caulfield 28, Hampton Park 22, East Brighton 22, Highett 20, Skye 4, Heatherton 0.
RESULTS: Chelsea 15.18 108 def Caulfield 4.6 30, Skye 7.6 48 def by Highett 11.8 74, Heatherton 4.4 28 def by Hampton park 22.15 147, East Brighton 6.4 40 def by Keysborough 11.16 82.
