By Sports Desk
Football is clearly a numbers game and Cora Lynn and Warragul Industrials will have the same two digits in mind when the Cobras and Dusties collide in a really important contest at the Cobradome on Saturday.
For Cora Lynn, five wins plus five wins equals 10, while for the Dusties it’s the more difficult combination of adding seven wins to their current haul of three – to equal the magic number of victories required to play finals football this year.
Both teams probably sit exactly where we thought they would be at this stage of the WGFNC season, with the Cobras dropping a favoured game against Dalyston but picking one up against the highly-fancied Nar Nar Goon.
And the Dusties have been easy to predict as well, winning against the bottom-three teams in the competition but losing every time they’ve played a team above them this year.
But it’s now…round eight…when we find out what really makes these two tick.
If they bank the wins they should then the Cobras will have eight wins locked away, meaning they need to win two of their remaining eight games to make a certainty of playing finals.
Sounds easy right!
Well the plot thickens somewhat when you consider that four of those games will be played against Phillip Island (twice), Inverloch-Kongwak and Tooradin-Dalmore.
We’re not ruling the Cobras out of any of those games…but they’ll certainly be underdogs in all four.
That drops the equation to two wins from the remaining four matches against the Dusties (twice), Dalyston and Nar Nar Goon.
That’s why this one is so important!
As for the Dusties, well their mathematical equation is very similar.
Lose this and they have no margin for error, with 50/50 games against Dalyston (twice) and the Cobras, again, in round 17, likely to decide their finals destiny.
Expect a really dour affair in this one.
The Dusties won their semi-final clash last year – on this very same dance floor – by 15 points, with the final score being 7.4.46 to 4.7.31.
It’s a scoreboard that Dusties coach Harmit Singh would very much like to see again, nullifying the goal-kicking exploits of Nathan Gardiner…who is possibly in career-best form.
Gardiner has been a goal-kicking machine for the Cobras, but his recent output from his last six games of 6, 6, 7, 6, 6 and 12 against Bunyip last week is pretty hard to top.
Good luck Will McGillivray – you’re going to need it!
This one will be a real arm-wrestle, but expect the Cobras to have the firepower to get the job done by 11 points.
The other main contest this week sees Dalyston host Phillip Island in the biggest match between these two clubs since the first year of the WGFNC in 2017.
The Magpies won the two home-and-away meetings between the clubs that year, but the Bulldogs had the last laugh in a cut-throat semi-final.
Since then it’s been all one-way traffic…the Bulldogs winning seven games on the trot!
That trend will continue again on Saturday, but expect the Pies to be plucky early before the Doggies take control.
It could be closer than expected – the Doggies by 32 points.
In other games this week, Nar Nar Goon will spoil the Life Members and Sponsors Day party at Bunyip, while Inverloch-Kongwak will be too crisp for Kooweerup at Denhams Road.
The Demons have had a horrible draw of late, but his game ends that horror stretch with some brighter times on the horizon.
They won’t win this one the Dees, but they need to stay connected for upcoming winnable games against Korumburra-Bena, Garfield and Bunyip.
Garfield will provide some cheek, but be no match for Tooradin-Dalmore at Beswick Street, while Kilcunda-Bass will look to make it four wins from their last five games against Korumburra-Bena.
The Panthers found avenues to goal in Taylor Gibson and Anthony Daraio against Phillip Island last week and will appreciated the class drop.
The Giants are a proud club and would never give the Panthers an easy four points…but it’s the Panthers to win by seven or eight goals.
WGFNC TIPS – Round 8
Bunyip v NAR NAR GOON, CORA LYNN v Warragul Industrials, Dalyston v PHILLIP ISLAND, Garfield v TOORADIN-DALMORE, KILCUNDA BASS v Korumburra Bena, Kooweerup v INVERLOCH-KONGWAK.
SOUTHERN
Wins over Skye, Highett and Doveton and a tight loss to Murrumbeena has Hampton Park firmly entrenched as a challenger to premiership favourite East Brighton in 2023.
After failing to win any games against top five sides last year, recruits, standards and culture have lifted the Redbacks to the next level this season.
Despite some missing pieces, such as height and a slick rebounder, they look set for a period of success.
After the King’s Birthday break, they’ll get several players back from injury, including Josh Stow, Tristan Fernandez-Phillips, Sean Winsall and Jesse Naylor which will make them even stronger.
It makes the resume that the Spiders have so far accomplished all the more impressive.
The immediate task?
Defeat Caulfield at Caulfield.
It’s a mammoth ask for any Division Two team, even with star Lynden Dunn absent with a knee injury and a weaker lineup than last year.
The dimensions are as small as anywhere in the competition, and the way it is defended by the hosts makes it feel even smaller.
Hampton Park haS long been known as a hard team willing to do the grunt work but have some players more willing to drive the legs and open the ground up more.
With home games to be played at the enormous and open Tony Way Recreation Reserve this year, those runners and ball users are important.
But this is a challenge which will require some malleability from what it has become accustomed.
Win it, and they would be favoured to go 9-2, with Keysborough, Black Rock and East Malvern on the horizon.
Then if they’re injury free, they’re almost certainly seen as the premiership second-runners.
But that’s a lot of ifs…and even more litres of water to pass under the bridge before we get to that stage.
Caulfield’s the task and a win will be another step on the grander narrative.
TIPS
Division Two: Caulfield v HAMPTON PARK, DOVETON v Keysborough, SKYE v Highett, Black Rock v East Brighton, East Malvern v MURRUMBEENA
Division One: Chelsea Heights v BENTLEIGH, Mordialloc v CRANBOURNE, DINGLEY v St Paul’s McKinnon, St Kilda City v CHELTENHAM, Springvale Districts v PORT MELBOURNE COLTS.
OUTER EAST
With the impending bye looming as part of the King’s Birthday long weekend, no side will want to go into the week off stewing on a loss this week.
For Wandin, that feeling is amplified by having their fixtured bye the week after, allowing for two weeks of rest and recovering before an assault on the back half of the campaign.
The benchmark setting Bulldogs head to the narrow confines of Upwey Tecoma to face the Tigers, themselves recuperated having had their bye in round six.
It hasn’t been easy to get a read on the Tigers, who find themselves in third on the table with a miserly defence.
But they have benefited from a somewhat favourable draw to date, yet to see Wandin or Narre Warren who have separated themselves from the field.
They’ll be eager to make amends, however, having fallen to Pakenham in their last outing.
Gembrook Cockatoo is presented a terrific chance to win its second in a row, with the winless Olinda Ferny Creek heading to the top of the hill to tackle the men in green and white.
Having got the better of Woori Yallock in a close finish last week, a 4-2 start to the year for Brad Coller’s Brookers would no doubt exceed expectations and give them a platform to propel from in their quest to play finals footy.
Pakenham head to Monbulk for the chance to grab its second win of the campaign against the Hawks.
Another solid patch of footy against a quality side in Wandin continues to show signs of progress for Ash Green’s men, but they meet Monbulk who are in winning form after defeating Mt Evelyn in round six.
Narre Warren, meanwhile, seem to have found their stride, kicking an average of 158 points in the past two weeks against Gembrook Cockatoo and Olinda Ferny Creek.
Another big score beckons at Mt Evelyn.
Division One action sees Emerald return to the fold after last week’s bye.
Barring a miracle, it’s difficult to envisage their winning form coming to a halt against Belgrave.
Hallam’s mission to win their first game in the competition takes them to Seville, while an intriuging battle looms between fourth-placed Healesville and third-placed Officer.
Berwick Springs will put their feet up with the bye.
Following round seven, each side will have faced one-another in Division One competition, presenting a captivating middle of the season ahead.
TIPS
PREMIER DIVISION
Monbulk v PAKENHAM, Mt Evelyn v NARRE WARREN, Upwey Tecoma v WANDIN, GEMBROOK COCKATOO v Olinda Ferny Creek.
DIVISION ONE
Belgrave v EMERALD, SEVILLE v Hallam, Healesville v OFFICER.
