By Sports Desk
If football was purely a numbers’ game, then Warragul Industrials would be in an awful amount of trouble when it hosts Phillip Island in the WGFNC Match of the Day at Western Park on Saturday.
The Dusties are the lowing scoring team in the top six, averaging 74 points per game, while the travelling Bulldogs have kicked 1663 points this season – 272 more than next best Inverloch-Kongwak – and average 119.
Then factor in that the Dusties concede 62 points per outing, and the Bulldogs 46…and you can see what Harmit Singh and his team are up against this weekend.
The numbers above tell us one clear thing…if this becomes a shootout the Dusties are no chance of winning.
But Singh seems to have unlocked the key to limiting the Bulldogs plethora of scoring options, with their last three outings making for interesting reading.
In round 12 last year, on this very deck, the Dusties won 76-38, showing their first signs of what they were capable of later in the season.
Then, in an epic extra-time preliminary final, Phillip Island won 54-52 to progress to the big dance.
In round one this season, the Bulldogs won 62-36 in a dour arm-wrestle.
Over those last three games the Bulldogs lead the most important stat in football – the win column – 2-1, but the Dusties lead 164 to 154 in overall points scored.
The bottom line here is that two teams that play very contrasting styles are about to lock horns, and that often makes for the best and most absorbing contests.
The Dusties welcomed back some key players last week, with classy left-footer Kyle Beveridge returning from a month on the sidelines with four goals, while the presence of Jackson Mockett was also important against Kooweerup.
The Bulldogs have some imposing weapons to deal with, such as Cam Pedersen, Daniel Bourke, Jack Taylor – coming off 10 goals – Jai Jordan, Max Blake and Travis Woodfield…so this week will be a case of all hands-on deck for the Dusties.
The Bulldogs have nine players that have kicked 10 or more goals this season, three more than Inverloch, Nar Nar Goon and Tooradin…and five more than Cora Lynn.
The Dusties only have three, with Mason McGarrity (39), Kyle Staples (25) and Shane Brewster (14) the only players on that list.
But the most important number this week is four, in the premiership points column…and it’s the Bulldogs to claim more of that precious commodity with a 21-point victory.
In other games this week, Tooradin-Dalmore welcomes an in-form Korumburra-Bena to the banks of the Westernport, while Inverloch-Kongwak makes back-to-back lengthy trips as it heads to Bunyip.
Tooradin has had two tough wins in recent weeks, against the Dusties and Cora Lynn, but will have an easier time of things against the gallant Giants.
Paul Fermanis and his team were so brave last week, turning around a 127-point defeat at the hands of Kilcunda-Bass to score a six-point win just six weeks after that debacle.
But this is a bridge too far…it’s the Seagulls to be too organised and win by plenty.
And Inverloch will bounce back strongly after its first loss of the season against Nar Nar Goon last week.
Coach Tom Hams tried to lift his side across the line, to no avail…but the four points are guaranteed this week against the battling Bulldogs.
Nar Nar Goon will bank its tenth win of the season on a tricky trip to Dalyston, while Cora Lynn will be keen to bounce back when it makes the short journey to Garfield.
The Cobras have been playing some good footy over the last month, with last week’s two-point loss to Tooradin a heartbreaker…but will get the job done against the Stars.
And flipping a coin is probably the best way to pick a winner when Kilcunda Bass hosts Kooweerup this week.
The Panthers have had a poor fortnight of footy, but upcoming games against the Demons and Garfield provide real hope of a seven-win season.
Up she goes…it’s a head…it’s the Demons to win by three points.
TIPS – Round 15
Warragul Industrials v PHILLIP ISLAND, Kilcunda-Bass v KOOWEERUP, Bunyip v INVERLOCH-KONGWAK, Dalyston v NAR NAR GOON, Garfield v CORA LYNN, TOORADIN-DALMORE v Korumburra-Bena.
OUTER EAST PREMIER
Pakenham’s huge victory over Mt Evelyn grants them temporary ownership of fourth place, but the challenges keep coming.
Ash Green’s side head to Upwey Tecoma this week, one of two sides sitting on 24 points and snapping at the Lions’ heels, one win behind.
Green admitted on Saturday that the smaller grounds are a challenge for his side and the Tigers’ home base falls right into that category.
With an inferior percentage to both sides, any slip-up will prove costly in the run home.
The two played a nail-biter in round five, with Pakenham coming from behind at three-quarter-time to overrun the Tigers at Toomuc Reserve for its first win of the season.
Mt Evelyn will like its chances against Olinda Ferny Creek, but there’s an element of danger around the Bloods given their improvement in the second half of the season, who shape as a real banana peel for the top sides.
In a rematch of last year’s preliminary final, traditional Yarra Valley rivals Wandin and Woori Yallock will go toe-to-toe at Woori Yallock, the Tigers eager to close the gap on the Bulldogs who sit comfortably in second place.
With Narre Warren best-placed to finish on top, it could be a taste of what’s to come for these two sides, likely to meet in the first week of finals.
Elsewhere, Narre Warren should account for Gembrook Cockatoo.
DIVISION ONE
Officer’s clash with Healesville carries massive permutations in the run home, with both sides scrapping for fourth place.
Each side has a bye to come and will therefore finish on the same number of games played, reducing the variability of match ratio to potentially determine fourth place.
It was a tight 11-point win to Healesville when the two sides met in round seven at Healesville, who ran down the Kangaroos’ 25-point quarter-time lead.
An Officer win will have them on equal footing with the Bloods, while a Healesville win will see Officer fall two games back of fourth place.
Hallam’s quest for the first win in the competition continues at home when it hosts Seville, one of the form sides in the competition with two consecutive wins.
Seville, however, will be desperate to keep a buffer between them and fourth.
Emerald, meanwhile, can kick further clear of Berwick Springs by handling business against Belgrave.
The Titans have the bye.
TIPS
PREMIER DIVISION
Upwey Tecoma v PAKENHAM, MT EVELYN v Olinda Ferny Creek, NARRE WARREN v Gembrook Cockatoo, Woori Yallock v WANDIN.
DIVISION ONE
EMERALD v Belgrave, Hallam v SEVILLE, Officer v HEALESVILLE.
SOUTHERN FOOTBALL NETBALL LEAGUE
Doveton will be looking to bounce into some form when it faces sixth-placed Skye at home this week.
Having lost two of their last three, after a strong middle third of the season which saw them win seven straight, the match against the Bombers marks the start of the run of four winnable games to finish the home and away season.
We’ll have to keep an eye on the team-sheet later in the week to see how many players return for the bout after a third of their best 22 missed last week against Highett.
Doveton won by 22 points when the teams first played and will hope the form of forward Cam Williamson can continue.
It will also be coach Michael Cardamone’s second match back in the seniors; one would expect a player of his calibre to settle back in seamlessly, but having coached from the sidelines for a period, how that plays out will again be an intriguing watch.
Shannon Henwood and Aaron Johns will have to carry the load in the midfield with Jake Basa out injured, and Will Smith and Brodie Howie having also missed last week.
Expect them to bring the hardness and start to hit their straps as the charge to September begins.
The Doves will be in the unfamiliar position of barracking for Hampton Park to win on the weekend when it faces Highett, for a Highett win would keep the pressure on for third spot.
In Division 1, Cranbourne will be warm favourite to get a victory in Glenn Osborne’s 200th, and he’ll have an opportunity to continue his strong form against St Paul’s McKinnon.
Springvale Districts’ clash with Bentleigh is one that should be won, and that result would be a necessary confidence booster ahead of games with Cheltenham and Cranbourne.
Another game from outside the region to keep an eye on is Port Melbourne v Cheltenham…the Rosellas should win, but if there is a game the premiership favourites are to lose before finals, it would be the Colts away.
In some ways, it comes down to which Port Melbourne turns up.
TIPS
Division 1: Port Melbourne v CHELTENHAM, CRANBOURNE v St Paul’s McKinnon, St Kilda City v CHELSEA HEIGHTS, SPRINGVALE DISTRICTS v Bentleigh, Mordialloc v DINGLEY.
Division 2: EAST BRIGHTON v Caulfield, HAMPTON PARK v Highett, DOVETON DOVES v Skye, MURRUMBEENA v Black Rock, EAST MALVERN v Keysborough.
