With four rounds to go in Outer East Football Netball A Grade netball, top six appears as close to locked-away as can be, but final seedings within the six remain up for grabs.
Beginning with a pair of huge clashes in round 15, with two games featuring all four top four sides, a handful of games will go a long way to determining where the teams fall, and who will face who in the opening week of the finals.
Narre Warren heads to Wandin where a win in the grand final rematch will as good as secure the minor premiership.
Should they secure the four points, only a miracle would prevent them losing top spot to the chasing Bulldogs, who would require goal difference and results going their way to dethrone the Magpies from securing the best possible chance of going back to back.
With a tough stretch to finish the year, including major contests against Monbulk (round 16) and Mt Evelyn (round 18), the Magpies will be eager to secure the advantage at the earliest possible chance.
The Rovers are the only team to beat the Magpies in 2024 and knocked them off twice in 2023, before Narre Warren turned the tables in a memorable preliminary final.
Narre Warren’s approach will also be telling; if they’ve sewn-up the minor premiership before the contest, do they rest players and attempt to orchestrate a preferable match-up in the second week of finals?
Meanwhile in round 15, Mt Evelyn and Monbulk pits third against fourth, and given the two drew in the corresponding fixture earlier this season, expect it to go down to the wire.
Monbulk has been one of the surprise packets of A Grade this season, forcing its way into top four contention, but faces a tough run home with games against the Rovers, Narre Warren and Pakenham.
For arguments’ sake, let’s assume that in each of the 24 games, the team higher on the ladder after round 14 will prevail.
Of course, upsets are not out of the question, but for the purpose of consistency, let’s say they are.
Narre Warren and Emerald will win all four of their respective remaining matches, Wandin, Pakenham and Mt Evelyn will win three and Monbulk will split its, for two wins and two losses.
The top three will remain as is, with Narre Warren and Wandin securing a double-chance and a week off in the first week of finals.
Mt Evelyn will consider itself unlucky to miss out, but three teams doesn’t go into two, and they will be forced to go the long way if they are to claim premiership glory.
Pakenham and Monbulk, however, will swap places, with the Lions snatching fourth, due to a less-treacherous run home compared to the Hawks, where they will expect to collect points in three of the four contests.
Neutral finals venues nullify home court advantages, but the psychological edge will be critical in the all-important mental battle.
The two will square-off in round 17, giving each side the chance to get a vital scouting opportunity.
Emerald, meanwhile, will secure sixth place, in an incredible effort after coming up from Division One.
Mt Evelyn await in the first week of the finals, but the Bombers will like their chances, having narrowly squeezed home when the two met in round 11.
MATCHES THAT MATTER (Ladder positions as of round 14)
Round 15: Wandin (2) v Narre Warren (1), Mt Evelyn (3) v Monbulk (4)
Round 16: Narre Warren (1) v Monbulk (4)
Round 17: Monbulk (4) v Pakenham (5)
Round 18: Narre Warren (1) v Mt Evelyn (3)
