The combination of an insecure ladder and a shotgun start on Saturday afternoon will make for a thrilling conclusion to the home and away season of the Outer East Football Netball (OEFN) Premier Division.
Heading into the final week, five of the 12 places are locked away – Narre Warren (first), Upwey Tecoma (fourth), Olinda Ferny Creek (fifth), Mt Evelyn (sixth) and Berwick Springs (twelfth).
Much of the intrigue, however, lies in the bottom half of the table, with a potential three-way tie for 11th, which in effect, becomes last, given the departure of Berwick Springs from the competition in 2025, and carries relegation connotations
Currently Emerald is in the hot seat, one game back from Gembrook Cockatoo and Pakenham, but with a favourable final game against Berwick Springs in round 18, the Bombers appear likely to join the other two on 20 points.
For their parts, the Brookers head to Upwey Tecoma and Pakenham welcomes Woori Yallock to Toomuc Reserve, both tough contests against sides priming for a finals run.
Woori Yallock in particular have the greatest motivation, needing a win to keep third-placed Wandin at bay and secure a top-two finish, which carries with it the all-important double chance, while Pakenham’s Jordan Stewart will likely sit the contest out due to suspension.
Should the Bombers win and a three-way tie on 20 points eventuates, it will be Pakenham packing its bags for Division One in 2025, on the back of OEFN’s tiebreaker system.
Given the 12-team competition makes for an uneven fixture, OEFN by-laws state percentage cannot be used as a tiebreaker.
Instead, the differentiating factor will be the best winning percentage of games played among tied teams.
With two wins and one loss in this bracket, the Brookers lead the way with winning percentage of 66 per cent, followed by Emerald on 50 per cent, and Pakenham on 33.
It would be disastrous for Pakenham, which set its sights on a top-three finish at the beginning of the year.
Should Emerald and Pakenham tie on 20 points, Emerald will be relegated, due to Pakenham having the greatest winning margin in the contests between the two sides, by a miserly two points, while Gembrook Cockatoo will be sent packing if it ties with Emerald.
Emerald definitely has the wood over the Titans, with the Division One grand final triumph of 2023 still fresh in everyone’s mind.
Elsewhere, a 13-point win will see Officer leapfrog Monbulk and finish in seventh, potentially finishing one back from qualifying for the top six, and casting further confusion around the Kangaroos’ decision to part ways with Daniel Charles.
A Wandin win over Olinda Ferny Creek will keep it in the hunt for second, but needs Pakenham to do it a favour to keep the door ajar – a big ask, given the circumstances.
All this makes Narre Warren’s clash with Mt Evelyn a ‘dead rubber’, with neither side able to move from its current ladder position.
How both sides approach the contest will be intriguing, with health surely to be front of mind.
TIPS: MONBULK v Officer, NARRE WARREN v Mt Evelyn, Olinda Ferny Creek v WANDIN, UPWEY TECOMA v Gembrook Cockatoo, Pakenham v WOORI YALLOCK, EMERALD v Berwick Springs.
THE RELEGATION PICTURE
– EMERALD WIN, GEMBROOK COCKATOO LOSE, PAKENHAM LOSE: Pakenham will be relegated.
– EMERALD WIN, GEMBROOK COCKATOO LOSE, PAKENHAM WIN: Gembrook Cockatoo will be relegated.
– EMERALD WIN, GEMBROOK COCKATOO WIN, PAKENHAM LOSE: Emerald will be relegated.
– EMERALD LOSE – Emerald will be relegated.
LIKELY FIRST WEEK OF FINALS: Wandin (third) v Mt Evelyn (sixth), Upwey Tecoma (fourth) v Olinda Ferny Creek (fifth). Narre Warren (first), Woori Yallock (second) – Bye.
